Weekly economic review for week ended December 5

An overview of business activity in the US, eurozone and the UK

Latest US PMI data signals improvement

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI registered 52.2 in November, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 51.9, but lower than October’s final reading of 52.5. This marked the fourth consecutive month of expansion.

Production rose solidly, supported by the strongest increase output since August, while employment also continued to grow. Confidence in the outlook strengthened, though overall demand expanded only slightly amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Finished-goods inventories increased at a record pace for the second straight month because of weaker-than-expected sales. Input cost inflation stayed elevated, driven largely by tariff pressures. Manufacturers continued to pass on higher costs onto their customers through higher selling prices, however, selling price inflation for the past month eased to one of the lowest levels recorded this year, restrained by subdued demand and heightened competitive pressures.

Eurozone retail sales flatline

Meanwhile, eurozone retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, flatlined in October. Following a revision of a 0.1% increase in September, the consumer spending measure remained unchanged for the month of October. On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 1.5%, beating market expectations of a 1.3% gain and an increase from a revised 1.2% the month prior. 

According to Eurostat, retail sales declined in Germany and France on the month, while showing no change in Spain. In November, eurozone consumer confidence remained unchanged holding its strongest level since February. Nevertheless, the index continues to reflect a pessimistic outlook, as households across Europe continue to prioritise saving over discretionary spending.

UK services sector grows

Finally, Britain’s services sector growth slowed in November, according to a survey data released on Wednesday.

The S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised upward to 51.3 in November, compared with an earlier provisional reading of 50.5.  Despite the uptick in its revision, the figure marked a slowdown from October’s 52.3. The latest reading pointed to weaker business activity across the UK service economy, reflecting softer demand both domestically and internationally.

Last month, new orders declined for the first time since July, while exports dropped at the fastest pace since June. Firms cited their uncertainty surrounding finance minister Rachel Reeves’s November 26 budget as a reason for postponing investments in new projects. Respondents also highlighted headwinds from muted consumer and business confidence.

This article does not constitute legal and, or financial advice and is being issued for information purposes only by Bank of Valletta p.l.c., 58, Zachary Street, Valletta. Bank of Valletta is a public limited company regulated by the MFSA and is licensed to carry out the business of banking and investment services in terms of the Banking Act (Cap.371 of the Laws of Malta) and the Investment Services Act (Cap.370 of the Laws of Malta).

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